The Nikkei 225 is expected to advance for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, supported by broad-based buying led by blue-chip equities. Following a firm open tracking Wall Street's overnight gains, the Tokyo market may experience futures-driven volatility once the initial wave of buying subsides. Furthermore, with the 10-year JGB yield rising to an approximately 27-year high, caution over elevated domestic rates is likely to weigh on sentiment and cap further upside.

U.S. Markets & Macro Drivers

U.S. equities resumed trading after a long weekend with solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded to close at 46,669.88, up 165.21 points. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 117.15 points to 21,996.33, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains amid steady demand for tech shares.

Sentiment was buoyed by reports from U.S. media and Reuters indicating that Washington, Tehran, and mediator nations are exploring a 45-day ceasefire framework to halt military conflicts, a development that triggered short-covering. However, geopolitical uncertainties linger as President Trump maintains a hardline stance, threatening severe strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened.

On the macroeconomic front, the March ISM Services PMI missed consensus estimates, declining from the previous month. Notably, the "Prices Paid" sub-index accelerated, fueling stagflation concerns and complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path. Despite the overnight rally in U.S. equities, these mixed signals suggest that near-term market direction remains uncertain.

Today's Economic Calendar

・Domestic: February Household Spending, early-to-mid March Trade Statistics, 30-year JGB auction, February Coincident Index (preliminary), and Consumer Activity Index.

・Overseas: U.S. February Durable Goods Orders, U.S. February Consumer Credit, and U.S. 3-year Treasury auction.

Source: MINKABU PRESS