The dollar-yen exchange rate in the foreign exchange market from tonight through tomorrow is likely to see the dollar supported by persistent expectations of higher crude oil prices due to tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The expected range is 159.20 yen to 160.10 yen per dollar.

While attention is focused on whether negotiations between the United States and Iran will materialize, Iranian President Pezeshkian has indicated that "U.S. commitment violations and the blockade of Iranian ports are major obstacles to genuine negotiations," and the situation continues with no clear path to ending the conflict. Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced on the 22nd that it had seized two vessels for navigating the Strait of Hormuz without permission and attacked another vessel. It appears it will take time for navigation through the strait to normalize, and if crude oil prices remain elevated, dollar buying driven by rising U.S. interest rates amid inflation concerns and yen selling driven by awareness of Japan's worsening trade balance, which relies on imports for most of its energy, are likely to emerge. However, with lingering caution over foreign exchange intervention and next week being "Central Bank Week" when the central banks of Japan, the U.S., and Europe will decide on policy rates, market participants will likely be reluctant to tilt their positions in one direction.

Of note, U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week and the preliminary U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April will be released tonight in Japanese time.

Source: MINKABU PRESS

*Translated by generative AI. Click here for the original article.