Tokyo stocks are expected to decline on the 13th as ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed, heightening pessimism over Middle East tensions and increasing selling pressure on futures. The expected trading range is \55,500 to \56,500.

On the 10th, U.S. markets closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the first time in three sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite Index extended its winning streak to eight consecutive sessions, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.3%, renewing its record high. While investors sought to assess the outcome of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, some blue-chip stocks were sold for position adjustments. However, technology stocks were supported by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company , which reported March sales up 45% year-on-year. Nonetheless, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks held over the weekend failed to reach an agreement after lengthy discussions, and U.S. Vice President Vance and others departed from Islamabad, the Pakistani capital where the negotiations took place. While the difficult negotiations were somewhat anticipated, the renewed awareness of uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions is a negative factor for equity markets. Additionally, on the 12th, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Akasawa Ryosei stated on an NHK program that the Bank of Japan's monetary policy could be "one option" for addressing rising prices, fueling expectations for an early rate hike domestically. Furthermore, President Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. There are concerns that rising crude oil prices could accelerate selling pressure on stock index futures.

However, expectations for a scenario in which the U.S. and Iran resume negotiations and find common ground have not completely disappeared, and some investors remain ready to buy on dips. After trading closed on the 10th, YASKAWA Electric Corporation <6506> released its consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending February 2026 and indicated that operating profit for the fiscal year ending February 2027 is expected to increase for the first time in four years. Attention is focused on the company's stock response, as this demonstrates robust demand in the AI and semiconductor sectors. If excessive pessimism surrounding upcoming domestic corporate earnings announcements eases, it could provide support for Japanese stocks.

In U.S. stock markets on the 10th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 269.23 points to 47,916.57, declining for the first time in three sessions. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 80.47 points to 22,902.89.

On the domestic calendar, March money stock data and investment trust overview are scheduled for release. At a trust conference, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's remarks will be read on his behalf by Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo. Internationally, India's March consumer price index and U.S. March existing home sales data are due, and Goldman Sachs Group will announce earnings. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings will be held through the 18th. Thai markets will be closed.

Source: MINKABU PRESS

*Translated by generative AI. Click here for the original article.