The dollar-yen pair is expected to remain volatile next week, driven by headline risks amid persistent uncertainty in the Middle East. The pair is forecast to trade in a range of 158.00 to 161.00 yen.

U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the morning of the 11th local time, an event that could significantly move markets. A stalemate could fuel concerns of a broader conflict, spurring safe-haven dollar buying, whereas progress toward a resolution may trigger dollar selling. Separately, Israel and Lebanon are expected to meet next week for ceasefire negotiations, the outcome of which will also be closely watched.

Market participants are also keenly focused on whether upcoming U.S. economic data will reflect the impact of higher oil prices. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting, released on the 8th, signaled that further rate hikes may be necessary to counter inflation. While expectations of U.S. monetary tightening could underpin the dollar, mounting concerns over an economic slowdown could prompt selling.

Key U.S. data due next week include March existing home sales on the 13th, the March Producer Price Index (PPI) on the 14th, the April Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Beige Book on the 15th, followed by the April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and March industrial production on the 16th. In Japan, final February industrial production figures are due on the 14th, with February machinery orders following on the 15th. Additionally, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at a trust association conference on the 13th.

Source: MINKABU PRESS

*Translated by generative AI. Click here for the original article.