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Tokyo Stock Market Outlook for March 30: Sharp Decline Expected to Continue as Middle East Tensions Fuel Global Stock Sell-off and Risk-off Sentiment

Mon Mar 30, 2026 8:00 am JST Market

The Tokyo stock market on the 30th is likely to see the Nikkei Stock Average fall sharply for a third consecutive session amid heightened risk-aversion sentiment. With the added impact of dividend ex-rights (approximately \350), the index could break below the \52,000 level and decline to the lower \51,000 range. European stock markets on Friday saw across-the-board declines, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.4% for a second consecutive session. Crude oil prices have risen again amid uncertain Middle East conditions, renewing concerns about the impact on the European economy. The STOXX Europe 600 index, which represents overall European stock performance, also fell for a second day, rapidly approaching the low reached on the 20th of this month. In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down nearly 800 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plunged nearly 460 points, with a decline exceeding 2% that significantly surpassed the Dow's percentage drop. The Dow also reached a 10% decline from its peak, indicating entry into a "correction phase," and marked a fifth consecutive weekly decline, dampening investor sentiment. Reports of attacks on Iranian uranium-related facilities have intensified concerns about a prolonged conflict. WTI crude oil futures temporarily rose above $100 per barrel at one point. While the Nikkei Stock Average in the Tokyo market showed resilience on a closing basis despite volatile trading in the latter half of last week, a significant downward search appears unavoidable today. Although there are some expectations for peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which could lead to buybacks on dip-buying concerns after the initial sell-off subsides, a level below \52,000 appears unavoidable considering the downward pressure from dividend ex-rights.

In the U.S. stock market on the 27th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply for a second consecutive session, closing down 793.47 points at 45,166.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 459.73 points to 20,948.35.

On the schedule front, today the Bank of Japan will release the "Summary of Opinions" from its Monetary Policy Meeting held in March. Additionally, as this is the ex-dividend date for March, downward pressure from ex-dividend adjustments will be added to the overall index.

Source: MINKABU PRESS

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